How much is the market expected to move?
The market is currently pricing S&P 500 moves of about 0.999% per day. Over the next month that is roughly ±4.55% either way, about two-thirds of the time.
Options are priced around their historical middle.
This is what the options market expects — not a forecast of direction, and not a suggestion to trade options.
Index Volatility
normalReal implied volatility for the S&P 500 index complex — the only place a keyless implied-vol source exists. Single-name options stay on a clearly-labelled realized-vol proxy.
Implied vol (VIX)15.86≈ 0.999% per day (rule of 16)
percentile 37.7 of all history · IV rank (1y) 13.6
Term structurecontangoNear-term vol is priced below 3-month vol — the normal, calm shape.
front 15.86 / back 19.34 · ratio 0.82
Implied vs realized+1.92 ptsimplied 15.86 vs realized 13.94
ratio 1.138 · spread percentile 22.4
Expected move (30d)±4.55%±351.77 from 7736.52
~68% of the time the index stays inside this band over 30 days, if the market's own vol pricing is right.
What the evidence says about selling vs buying options
For selling premium: Implied vol has exceeded subsequent realized vol in 20 of 21 years (1998-2018, avg implied/realized ~129%); Cboe's PUT writing index earned a higher Sharpe than the S&P 500 (0.64 vs 0.45) with lower volatility.
Against — the tail risk: That premium is payment for crash risk, not free money: the PUT index carries far worse tails (skew -2.10 vs -0.81; kurtosis 9.72 vs 2.53), and option-writing UNDERPERFORMED the index through the 2010-2018 low-vol bull. Losses concentrate in sudden large moves.
On buying protection: Long-vol/protective structures pay off in crashes but bleed otherwise: continuously buying 5% OTM SPX puts (1996-2016) cut returns from 5.1% to 1.8% and Sharpe from 0.32 to 0.14.
Basis: implied (VIX, 30d forward-looking) vs realized (trailing 21d of S&P 500). Trailing realized is an observable proxy — the true VRP needs the NEXT 30 days, which is unknowable today.
Skew: not shown — 25-delta put/call skew needs an option chain. Cboe's delayed chain JSON explicitly prohibits automated extraction, and FRED carries no SKEW series — so skew is omitted rather than approximated.
CBOE VIX close (VIXCLS, FRED gateway, daily since 1990)
VIX (VIXCLS) vs VIX3M (VXVCLS), FRED gateway
VIX (VIXCLS) vs 21d realized vol of S&P 500 (SP500), both FRED gateway
S&P 500 close (SP500) x VIX implied vol
Educational volatility analytics for the index complex. Not a trade signal, not a recommendation to sell or buy options.
← Back homeFuturesBuilding evidence6 gates missing: exact contract roll history · exact contract expiries… OptionsBuilding evidence11 gates missing: bid ask · open interest volume…
Futures & options ideas
Futures and options are advanced tools. These idea cards show what the agents see — tap one to learn more before you ever consider trading it.
Research comes before a trade
The agents now check strategy history, costs, data quality, holdout tests, and paper results. If those checks are missing, the idea stays research-only instead of becoming a Buy or Sell signal.
No derivatives setup has passed every evidence gate yet. The agents will keep monitoring.
Futures & options
← Back homePlain-language ideas — switch to Pro for curves, Greeks & the vol surface
Futures & optionsAdvanced markets, explained simply
Futures and options are powerful but advanced. Here’s what the agents see in plain words — always learn how one works before you ever consider trading it.
Futures evidence: Building evidenceTrend + curve carry · validation gate
Research only. CL systematic research: bullish multi-horizon trend; curve carry unavailable. Evidence status insufficient_data. Still needed: exact contract roll history, exact contract expiries, estimated costs.
Options evidence: Building evidenceVolatility risk premium · full-chain gate
Research only. GC_OPTIONS options research: IV-realized spread -0.019 (fair); evidence status insufficient_data. Still needed: bid ask, open interest volume, rates.
No futures or options ideas from the agents right now — check back after the next run.
Want the futures curve, open interest, implied vol and Greeks? Switch to Pro in the top bar for the full desk.
AI analysis to study, not orders to follow. You always decide.
Derivatives Intelligence
Futures and Options Agents
Curve, volatility, and Greeks analytics for CL, GC, and gold options. Scenario guidance only — not guaranteed signals.
Futures agents12
Options agents8
Strategies1
Futures consensus is neutral with 0.25 agreement.
CLU26/CLV26: 1.18 · CLV26/CLX26: 1.18
GCV26/GCZ26: -33.1 · GCZ26/GCG27: -34.6
Evidence: Building evidence; research only.
Evidence gate
Building evidenceCrude futures research
Multi-horizon trend + curve carry
Sourceyahoo continuous research
History800 daily bars
ActionableNo
Multi-horizon trendbullish
Blend 20/60/120-day direction, then size by volatility and portfolio concentration limits.
Curve carryunavailable
Use annualized contract carry with exact expiries; raw contango/backwardation alone is not a trade rule.
Missing evidence
exact contract roll history · exact contract expiries · estimated costs · independent holdout · forward paper · net expectancy after costs
Risk vetoes
vendor continuous roll unknown
Evidence gate
Building evidenceGold futures research
Multi-horizon trend + curve carry
Sourceyahoo continuous research
History800 daily bars
ActionableNo
Multi-horizon trendbearish
Blend 20/60/120-day direction, then size by volatility and portfolio concentration limits.
Curve carryunavailable
Use annualized contract carry with exact expiries; raw contango/backwardation alone is not a trade rule.
Missing evidence
exact contract roll history · exact contract expiries · estimated costs · independent holdout · forward paper · net expectancy after costs
Risk vetoes
vendor continuous roll unknown
Evidence gate
Building evidenceOptions evidence lab
VRP + covered/collateralized benchmarks
Sourceyahoo options:GLD proxy + GVZCLS iv-history
History15 chain days
ActionableNo
Defined-risk volatility risk premiuminactive
Only harvest rich implied volatility with capped loss, executable quotes, costs, event controls, and tail stress.
Covered call benchmarkbenchmark
Premium cushions some downside but caps upside; compare with the Cboe BXM methodology.
Cash-secured put benchmarkbenchmark
Premium income accepts equity-like crash drawdown and requires full collateral; compare with Cboe PUT.
Missing evidence
bid ask · open interest volume · rates · dividends or forward · exercise settlement · estimated costs · event calendar · full chain history 5y · independent holdout · forward paper · net expectancy after costs
Risk vetoes
proxy underlying
Futures positioning — CFTC COT
Report 2026-07-28 · weeklyMarketNet speculativeWeekly changeCOT idx (3y)OI change w/w
ES (E-MINI S&P 500)-297,476 contracts+25,38967+44,915
NQ (NASDAQ MINI)-58,298 contracts+16,39218+7,878
GC (GOLD)+119,795 contracts-5,03660+1,235
CL (WTI-PHYSICAL)+92,943 contracts+28,96439-4,692
Net speculative futures positioning, updated weekly (Friday for Tuesday data). COT index: 0 = most short of the last ~3y, 100 = most long. Extremes flag crowding — they do not time reversals.
Index futures use TFF leveraged funds; commodities use Disaggregated managed money.
Five-year daily history
Yahoo Finance · dailyDescriptive only: these snapshots qualify no evidence gate. Continuous futures carry roll effects, and GLD is an ETF proxy, not options-chain history.
Crude oil continuous futures
1257 daily observations · 2021-08-04T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-05T00:00:00.000Z
Total return+11.39%
Annualized volatility+41.11%
Max drawdown-55.32%
20 day+7.77% · Uptrend
60 day-19.93% · Downtrend
120 day+18.68% · Uptrend
Gold continuous futures
1257 daily observations · 2021-08-04T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-05T00:00:00.000Z
Total return+129.25%
Annualized volatility+18.71%
Max drawdown-25.06%
20 day+0.13% · Uptrend
60 day-11.69% · Downtrend
120 day-17.05% · Downtrend
GLD ETF (gold-options proxy)
1254 daily observations · 2021-08-05T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z
Total return+121.58%
Annualized volatility+18.50%
Max drawdown-26.40%
20 day-0.88% · Downtrend
60 day-13.32% · Downtrend
120 day-19.08% · Downtrend
Institutional analytics
Research analytics, non-executing by design
Derivatives views add futures curve and options volatility diagnostics as measured data becomes available.
Portfolio risk
Exposure, leverage, concentration, and drawdown analytics are built on versioned market data. Values appear only when they trace to a trusted dataset — nothing is estimated for display.
Factors and scenarios
Factor exposures and stress scenarios are computed only where a measured data source exists, and every shock definition is stated explicitly.
Execution quality
Spread, slippage, and other cost analytics stay educational until measured cost evidence passes deterministic checks.
Every displayed value must trace to a versioned market-data source. Sizing and setup content stays educational and non-executing; this platform never places trades.
Futures curve, direction & flow agents
CL · GCFutures curve
BackwardationCL
CLU2675.14
CLV2673.96
CLX2672.78
CLU26/CLV26: 1.18 · CLV26/CLX26: 1.18
Futures curve
ContangoGC
GCV264,276.3
GCZ264,309.4
GCG274,344
GCV26/GCZ26: -33.1 · GCZ26/GCG27: -34.6
CL roll economics
CLU26 → CLV26 · curve is backwardation
Roll yield (annualized)+19.11%
Curve shapebackwardation
First noticeNo date sourced
GC roll economics
GCV26 → GCZ26 · curve is contango
Roll yield (annualized)-4.63%
Curve shapecontango
First noticeNo date sourced
AgentBiasConfidenceScoreSummary
futures curvecurve bullish86%8.6
CL curve is backwardation with M1-M2 spread 1.18.
futures directionalneutral57%5.7
CL directional model is neutral: regression slope 0.297%/bar (R² 0.07) with -10.1% five-bar momentum.
futures event supplymixed81%8.1
Event/supply risk score is 0.72.
futures flow oibearish58%5.8
Open interest flow shows long_liquidation.
futures meta consensusneutral18%1.8
Futures consensus is neutral with 0.25 agreement.
futures positioningneutral50%5
Speculative net positioning +28,964 w/w (COT idx 39, report 2026-07-28). Crowding flags squeeze risk — it does not time reversals.
futures curvecurve bearish90%9
GC curve is contango with M1-M2 spread -33.1001.
futures directionalbullish58%5.8
GC directional model is bullish: regression slope 0.094%/bar (R² 0.10) with 5.1% five-bar momentum. Plan: stop 4149.09, target 4589.4, typical hold ~40 trading days (window 4-40), time-stop 40.
futures event supplyneutral62%6.2
Event/supply risk score is 0.35.
futures flow oibullish78%7.8
Open interest flow shows long_building.
futures meta consensusbullish36%3.6
Futures consensus is bullish with 0.5 agreement.
futures positioningneutral50%5
Speculative net positioning -5,036 w/w (COT idx 60, report 2026-07-28). Crowding flags squeeze risk — it does not time reversals.
Options agents
IV · skew · term · Greeks · dailyAgentBiasConfidenceScoreSummary
options greeks riskneutral66%6.6
Greeks risk scan completed with deterministic threshold checks.
options implied volvol expansion66%6.6
IV is cheap versus realized volatility; expected move is 3.44%.
options meta consensusbullish22%2.2
Options consensus is bullish with 0.33 agreement.
options skew smilemixed63%6.3
Options skew is unstable.
options strategy recommenderbullish72%7.2
long call selected for bullish underlying bias, cheap implied volatility, unstable skew, and balanced term structure. Research only: evidence status insufficient_data.
options systematic researchneutral42%4.2
GC_OPTIONS options research: IV-realized spread -0.019 (fair); evidence status insufficient_data.
options underlying contextbullish70%7
Underlying context is bullish.
options vol termneutral68%6.8
Vol term structure is balanced.
Current options playbook
Latest setupThe current gold-options read (direction, IV regime, skew, term structure, Greeks risk) turned into a strategy family.
GC options · 1DLong Call
72% model scoreBullish upside idea: pay premium for call exposure when the agent expects the underlying to rise and IV is not too expensive.
Current read: long call selected for bullish underlying bias, cheap implied volatility, unstable skew, and balanced term structure.
Risk
Scenario guidance only; confirm strikes, liquidity, spread width, and event risk before any trade.
Invalidation
Invalidate if direction flips, IV regime changes, skew reprices, or term structure no longer supports the setup.
Expiry
45-60
Profit-take
Scale out at +50% to +100% of the premium paid, or at the underlying's 3.5x-ATR target.
Stop
Exit if the underlying bias flips bearish or the option loses half the premium paid.
Timing
Exit or roll once 21 days to expiry remain — theta decay accelerates from there, so profit must come in the first half of the hold.
Volatility surface
GC optionsIV rank—
IV percentile—
Front ATM IV23.2%
Back ATM IV23.6%
Skew score-0.03